The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

If anyone has watched Hollywood blockbuster Western spaghetti The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (1966), s/he would never miss the last minute Mexican standoff where the trio minutely watches their opponents before getting ready to pull their guns.

In metaphorical terms, Nepal’s politics too has come to a Mexican standoff situation, where the trio-some – Deuba, Oli and Prachanda – are intensively keeping an eye on each other, getting ready to draw their guns. In the movie, the roles respectively played by Clint Eastwood, Lee Van Cleef and Eli Wallach were fixed. But in Nepali politics, the roles of the trio are constantly changing, in a fluid manner, making Nepali politics even more exciting. A minute ago, you see Deuba playing the role of a hero, next minute he turns into a villain or a joker. Same goes with Oli and Prachanda. With the unfolding of political scenarios and events, their roles are constantly changing to a level of bewilderment and ecstasy.  

CPN-UML is happy, more than happy, with Maoists offering the post of Vice President in a sliver platter to NC. This must be a kind of big joke on NC.

The Mexican standoff

The upcoming elections to the president’s post can be taken as a point of the Mexican standoff. Oli is all cloak and dagger about UML candidate for the post. Within UML, a number of possible candidates are on fray. Same goes with Deuba. Other than Nepali Congress (NC) Young Turk, Bishwa Prakash Sharma hinting, “Don’t get surprised if you happen to see NC nominee inside Sheetal Niwas”, there is nothing official from the side of NC.

Prachanda is in a state of indecisiveness. He is squeezed between the two. At one end, he calls for similar support and consensus as demonstrated during confidence vote on 10 January that helped him to form a national government. At the other end, his hands are bound by the commitments made with Oli that posh jobs (President, Speaker and PM) be shared between themselves. Adept in using his skills of demagogy, Oli agrees that there can be national consensus if and only if NC agrees with UML-Maoist pact. CPN-UML is happy, more than happy, with Maoists offering the post of Vice President in a sliver platter to NC. This must be a kind of big joke on NC. The secret balloting plus weighing system of voting makes the standoff full of suspense and thrill.

Deuba’s dilemma

The Congressis are in a deep shock and constantly mulling overnight loss of chance to head the federal and provincial governments, including many posh and sinecure jobs that come with government. Deuba is squarely blamed for this loss. He is in extreme pressure from both ends – from the opponents within his party and from the members of this five party alliance. Even a lone seat holder like Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party (NMKP) is challenging him, threatening to go to the court, after NC’s confidence vote in favour of Prachanda. NMKP claims to be a legitimate oppositional political party in the parliament. By the way, NMKP is an evergreen, sadabahar, party in opposition.

Many have projected Deuba as a political villain, first, for squandering away an opportunity to govern the country simply because of his stubborn stand that infuriated Prachanda to betray five party alliance and join the Oli camp. Second, by deciding to give confidence vote to Prachanda, he has made mockery out of parliamentary democracy. To a political naïve, these statements look so much true. However, this author sees NC’s strategic move to cast confidence vote as “a game changer” in Nepali politics.

Within a month from the formation of the government, already discontented voices are heard among smaller members of the coalition. Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP) is mulling to withdraw its support to the government, Janamat Party is not happy with the allocation of a lone ministry and is demanding for two ministerial positions or one specific ministry of its choice; and Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP) has decided not to join the government unless its leader Resham Chaudhary is released from the prison. With four DPMs and a constitutional limit to have a Cabinet of not more than 25 ministers, Prachanda has no more largesse to distribute to hungry mouths.          

Remember that winning the seat of the President is far more important to Oli than to Deuba.

Oli’s obduracy

With his oratory skills, Oli gives an impression of invincible superman. With his “know-all” or master-of-everything-attitude, he projects himself to be a supreme leader. However, the reality is far from what is being projected. Remember him walking out of Baluwatar negotiating table on 17 January? It is a sheer ploy, a hardline bargaining tactics. Once the opponents get to know your tactics, you expose your vulnerability and stupidity. Remember that winning the seat of the President is far more important to Oli than to Deuba. He is visibly irritated by NC's confidence vote in the parliament. He, therefore, equated it as “fishing in choppy waters”. It will not be a surprise to see more of his brinkmanship and showmanship in run off to the president elections.      

Prachanda’s instable character   

In my earlier write up, I admitted that most interesting person to watch in Nepali politics is neither Deuba nor Oli but Prachanda. He is already in a kind of pressure – to be or not to be with Oli. He must be carefully weighing costs and benefits – both external and internal – of aligning or not aligning with Oli. He clearly knows this to be his third and last term as the PM of Nepal. That will be the end of his political career. Madhav Kumar Nepal perceives Prachanda “not feeling comfortable” with seven party alliance. Oli must be feeling uncomfortable with Prachanda’s statement claiming himself to be no different from any other PMs of Nepal. During their height of intra-party conflict, Oli had clearly informed Prachanda of his confusion to take “instability” as “dynamism”. Prachanda himself has admitted to his fluid character – moving here and there. Let us see where he will be at the time of presidential voting.    

Published on 20 January 2023